• How the Housing Market Puts the Fed in a Bind Over Rates

    A bounce-back in home sales and prices will raise shelter costs and could push the central bank to keep rates higher for longer. That risks perpetuating housing shortage affordability issues not only now, but for years to come.

    Barron’s | July 3, 2023

  • The Fed Has No Good Options. The Risk of a Misstep Is Growing.

    The Federal Reserve is struggling to cool inflation further without damaging the economy. The easy part is over.

    Barron’s | April 28, 2023

  • What Everyone Got Wrong About the Economy

    All those recession calls have yet to come true. Aggressive efforts to tame inflation are barely having an impact. Here’s why the economy continues to defy expectations—and what it means for the Federal Reserve.

    Barron’s | February 24, 2023

  • A Guide to the Fed: Whose Words Carry the Most Weight

    A Barron’s primer on who's who at the central bank and how to decipher what they say.

    Barron’s | January 13, 2023

  • Buckle Up: It’s Going to Be a Hard Landing

    The Federal Reserve’s heavily telegraphed move to slow its pace of monetary-policy tightening risks sending a message that the central bank is well on its way to reining in inflation and guiding the economy to a soft landing. Investors would do well to re-evaluate.

    Barron’s | December 9, 2022

  • Narrow Margins in Congress Portend Big Fights Ahead

    The results of the 2022 midterm elections will pave the way for big fights both within and between the parties on critical legislation and little action on much else.

    Barron’s | November 11, 2022

  • The Labor Shortage Will Get Worse and May Last for Decades

    It’s not just a temporary, Covid-driven phenomenon. The combination of an aging population, dwindling national birth rate and fall in immigration means the country is on track to face labor shortages for decades to come.

    Barron’s | September 2, 2022

  • How Pessimistic Americans Could Worry the Economy Into Recession

    Despite a strong economy, the dour national mood may having a tangible dampening effect on consumer activity—thereby boosting the chances of bringing about a downturn.

    Barron’s | July 27, 2022

  • The Great Resignation Is Beginning to Reverse Course

    As the country lumbers back toward normal, some of the most significant factors fueling what has become known as the Great Resignation are starting to ease.

    Barron’s | March 24, 2022

  • With Omicron Waning, Americans Are Ready for the Reopening

    The country’s rush back toward normal will mean a flood of consumer activity early this year—one the hard-hit services sector might not be able to handle.

    Barron’s | February 4, 2022

  • States Could Drive Rising Prices Even Higher. Here’s How.

    While the U.S. economy is expected to cool in 2022, there’s a largely untapped source of hundreds of billions of dollars in stimulus that could keep inflation elevated—and it’s sitting with state and local governments.

    Barron’s | January 6, 2022

  • Vaccine Mandates Crash Into America’s ‘Don’t Tell Me What To Do’ State

    Pummeled by unemployment, Las Vegas tried to reopen without widespread vaccination. Here are the lessons the city learned — and the challenges ahead.

    POLITICO Magazine | September 13, 2021

  • The Pandemic Drove Women Out Of The Workforce. Will They Come Back?

    Their absence could hurt the broader U.S. economy, so policymakers are weighing ways to help them return to work.

    POLITICO Magazine | July 22, 2021

  • Trump’s Attack Dog on Trade

    The California professor behind Trump’s anti-China policy is a mini-Trump himself.

    POLITICO Magazine | March 11, 2017

  • Americans’ fortunes soared during the pandemic. Some lawmakers see lasting lessons.

    Key aspects of the economy are doing better than before the pandemic, which supporters say shows how government spending can help.

    POLITICO | September 27, 2021

  • Battle over Biden’s massive child-care bill takes new turn with virus

    The return to classrooms was supposed to be a turning point for women, whose participation in the labor force plunged to its lowest level in more than three decades during the pandemic.

    POLITICO | September 18, 2021

  • Red states ready to defy Biden’s ‘aggressive indoctrination’ on education

    Republicans in states like Wisconsin, Florida and Alabama are already signaling that they would put up a fight against Biden’s expansive social welfare proposal.

    POLITICO | May 12, 2021

  • ‘Part of the fabric’: Democrats say Biden’s sweeping changes will be hard to undo

    The 46th president is taking more steps to expand the government’s role in public life than any U.S. leader since LBJ.

    POLITICO | April 28, 2021

  • Biden’s infrastructure plan heads for the Senate shredder

    The strict rules of reconciliation, which require that provisions affect federal revenue or outlays, could also kill aspects of the plan.

    POLITICO | April 11, 2021

  • Infrastructure push sets off feeding frenzy in Washington

    The White House’s rollout of the biggest infrastructure package in at least five decades has sparked a lobbying frenzy in Washington.

    POLITICO | March 31, 2021

  • Biden decides to shelve Warren’s wealth tax

    The president’s Build Back Better initiative will rely on other pay-fors instead.

    POLITICO | March 30, 2021

  • Beyond Covid relief: Biden invokes LBJ as Democrats aim to expand welfare state

    Democratic leaders are banking on some of the aid provisions being so popular that letting them expire would be a political nightmare.

    POLITICO | March 14, 2021

  • Biden, Democrats, plot ‘aggressive’ pandemic response — without the GOP

    Key Senate Democrats are gaming out plans to pass a massive stimulus package without Republican votes.

    POLITICO | January 12, 2021

  • The quiet frontrunner: How Biden landed on Yellen for Treasury secretary

    Other names drew far more speculation, but the former Federal Reserve chair was always on Biden’s radar.

    POLITICO | December 1, 2020

  • ‘A tale of 2 recessions’: As rich Americans get richer, the bottom half struggles

    The trend is on track to exacerbate dramatic wealth and income gaps in the U.S., where divides are already wider than any other nation in the G-7.

    POLITICO | September 7, 2020

  • America’s hidden economic crisis: Widespread wage cuts

    Employers are using pay cuts to stay afloat during the recession, an unusual move that could signal deep damage to the labor market.

    POLITICO | July 19, 2020

  • Reopening reality check: Georgia’s jobs aren’t flooding back

    A month after easing lockdown restrictions, the state is still seeing a steady stream of unemployment claims, economic data shows.

    POLITICO | May 21, 2020

  • ‘We ate their lunch’: How Pelosi got to ‘yes’ on Trump’s trade deal

    After tough fights, the speaker cut a deal that unions, the president and Democrats all like.

    POLITICO | December 10, 2019

  • Tougher North American steel definition in USMCA holds up talks

    The ask has angered Mexico as the two sides are working to reach a compromise as soon as possible.

    POLITICO | December 6, 2019